Generally, I believe it is
best to begin with the big picture in mind
and then work our way down to weekly and
then daily views of the charts. Let's start with the monthly view of
the S&P 500. The relative Strength Index
(RSI) seems to be a good indicator of the
cyclical bull and bear markets. Also, the 20
month moving average seems to act as
support. So what does this tell us? Well, so
far we have not transitioned from a cyclical
bull market to a cyclical bear market. And
this might be a buying opportunity for
stocks at or very close to their support
levels.
Next, let's look at another weekly chart of the S&P 500.
Notice that the 23 weekly RSI seems to be a
good bull and bear indicator. In addition,
the 65 weekly Exponential Moving Average
(EMA) at 1244 also acts as support indicating
is it holds this level is a good place to
buy. Best to monitor activity for now.
Now take a look at the
daily S&P 500. In May it broke down through
an up channel that had been in place since
November of 2005. Now the May 8, 2006 high
of 1327 acts as resistance. Presently we are
seeing a rising wedge which is considered a
negative. A break below the lower trend of
the wedge is a sign of further weaknesses.
Should we see a break through the upper part
of the wedge then resistance at 1327 is the
next level to watch. Also, note the 50
moving average is close to crossing up
through the 200 moving average which is a
positive. Looks like the positive
divergence on the MACD is breaking down
indicating weakness in the near future. Buying near support levels are
still the way to go. However, we need to be
ready to sell quickly when these resistance
levels hold. Keep our stops in place.
Based on this
brief review of the S&P 500 charts, I will look for buy
stocks that are at or near support levels
with initial targets that correspond to the
1291 S&P 500 resistance levels. I will also
begin to look for short opportunities
including the Rydex inverse funds that offer
2 times down side leverage and various ETFs
such as QID, should these support levels
fail. Now is the time to be very careful
with the turmoil in the Middle East and the
economy weakening. |